Though still high at nearly 81 percent, support for Albania’s EU membership takes nearly 13 percent dive since last year, according to AIIS annual study of Albanians’ perceptions.
TIRANA, Oct 27–The number of Albanians who are against or uncertain about their country’s membership in the European Union has risen to the highest level since 2006, according to a study released this week by the Albanian Institute for International Studies. Despite that rise, the study also found the majority of Albanians continue to support the country’s EU membership bid.
The study, which interviewed 1,200 Albanians in ten towns across Albania, found 80.7 percent of Albanians favor Albania’s integration into the European Union, while 10.5 percent are against it. A significant percentage of respondents, 8.8 percent say that they don’t know.
Though the support figure is still high enough to win a referendum by a comfortable margin, in relative terms, Albanian support appears to have taken a 12.7 percent dive this year, judging by 2010’s 93.4 percent approval rating. Last year only 3.6 percent were against the bid, so there has been almost a threefold increase this year. A similar trend has taken place in the “I don’t know” answer. Last year only 2.9 percent were uncertain how to answer, compared to 8.8 percent this year.
Since 2006, AIIS has published thorough annual studies that have tested Albanians’ willingness for their country to join the European Union as well as their understanding of the process.
A trend for lower support is normal, note AIIS experts. For example, Croatia, which next year becomes the first country in the Western Balkans to become an EU member, saw support fluctuate to as low as 30 percent during its application process, though currently a majority of voters support membership, according to independent polls.
However the study’s authors note the issues behind the decline in support in Albania are problematic because they stem from political frustration rather than economic concerns.
For example, reasons stated for supporting the bid included having a more democratic country based on the rule of law.
“If you look at the reasons both for and against, these deviate from what has been the case in other countries that later joined the European Union,” says AIIS Executive Director Albert Rakipi. “The reason behind the fall in support has a lot to do with the pessimism and frustration Albanians are feeling due to lack of progress.”
In fact, long seen as beneficial in economic terms, the survey says EU membership support is now seen driven by a desire for a more democratic country with full rule of law, which are preconditions for joining not benefits that come from joining the European Union.
More than 40 percent of Albanians cited the contribution to democracy as their main reason of support, and only 19 percent of them leaned on the side of economic benefits, mentioning rising standards of life as their driving motive.
“There is a flip between political reasons and economic ones, with political stability taking the place of economic prosperity as a priority for Albanian citizens. Similarly there is a considerable segment of people, more than 15 percent, that expect integration to bring more ‘rule of law.'” Unfortunately, all these are preconditions for EU membership.
More importantly, the study’s authors note that while still judging that integration is the key path for better life and a better future Albanians seem to have lost some of that unique enthusiasm that characterized them for years.
“Despite accepting this still marginal loss as a normal development over time, they also warn that Albania and the EU can not afford to lose the enthusiasm and popular support of the citizens related to the EU integration process,” they write.
‘Will and determination needed to move forward’
Ettore Sequi, the EU ambassador to Tirana, says it is clear that perceptions about EU membership are changing.
“Albania has been famous to display high levels of support and optimism for EU membership. Today, Albanians have a more complicated view of EU integration, and when it comes to a few key issues, a more confused view,” Ambassador Sequi said at an AIIS event organized after the release of the results. “A survey is always just a survey, and it does only give us a snapshot of the public mood at a certain point in time. But these are important hints – important hints for support for reforms, important hints for political support.”
He added, “Albania remains a potential candidate for EU integration and it will become a candidate country when it shows the necessary will and determination to improve its democracy and its living standards.”
The worry the survey indicates about the strength of democracy in Albania also caught the the attention of Andi Dobrushi, who heads the Open Society Foundation in Albania.
“Compared to a year ago, fewer Albanians think of integration as a priority, and a lot more see strengthening democracy in the country as a reason to support the integration process,” he said at the event, adding this might have come as a result of an increasing feeling that key issues in the functioning of Albania’s democracy need to be addressed.
Pessimism and skepticism on the rise
Faced with political deadlock at home and the global economic crisis, the survey’s findings that there is growing pessimism and skepticism don’t come to as a surprise.
Albania’s expected entry in the European Union is becoming more elusive in the minds of Albanians compared to previous years. For example 34 percent of Albanians believe that Albania won’t make it into the EU until 2020 and an impressive 29 percent push it even further believing that accession date ill be actually beyond that. About 9 percent appear to have given up hope that Albania will ever become an EU member. The overoptimistic, 18 percent, think the country shall join the European family in 2014, according to the survey’s findings.
The study’s authors note with worry that there are more people that don’t consider the Europeanization project as a priority. “If this trend is to continue the level of indifference might easily lead to opposition for necessary reforms and estrangement of the society at the grassroots level with the EU itself,” the report notes.
AIIS has argued for years that serious intervention is needed to encourage initiatives that promote the local ownership of the integration process, through raising transparency and involvement of society groups the integration activities.
“Politicians have trapped Albanians into thinking that European integration shall occur inevitably at some point of time despite internal reforms, an irresponsible approach that is not only failing to resonate through society but also is creating social fatigue and frustration with the process itself,” says Dr. Rakipi.
Visa-free travel creates new environment
What makes this year’s survey special is that it was held at a time in which Albanians could travel visa-free for the first time. So it had the ability to judge attitudes independently of Albanians’ desire to travel visa-free to European countries.
Past studies have shown deep psychological factors tied support for EU membership with the right to travel there visa-free.
The study also looked at the visa issues, where it found misconceptions, though at small levels, persist in the Albanian public opinion about the lifting of visa requirements. For example. 6 percent of Albanians still believe that now there is a chance to be employed in EU countries and another 6 percent believe that they can take up residence abroad, both opportunities that shall be available only after full accession.
But the news that 52 percent of Albanians traveled during the last six months to an EU member state, most of them to meet their relatives as well as for tourism is an encouraging sign that the visa-free system is being properly used.
As well, 12.4 percent of Albanians in the study said they feel gaood when traveling freely, mentioning they feel equal to other European citizens, a dignified state of mind that has been lacking for a very long time period where Albanians felt not only isolated but often humiliated when presented with suspicion and mistrust by the foreign authorities at the check points.
“This dimension of dignity and fraternity with fellow Europeans is one of the key positive effects of the liberalization of visas worth mentioning,” notes the study.
