By Artan P쳮aska
apernaska@tiranatimes.com
It suffices to put on the radio, view a TV program or collect a newspaper and find oneself in the middle of floods of talks or information speaking about the global economic crisis and its effects or its venue in Albania. While everybody else speaks of the crisis, the governmental teams in Albania seem to avoid employing the negatively connoted term and even make a full show of optimism concerning the economic growth of the country for the current year.
The Debate
The debate on the global crisis and its effects or its possible venue in Albania is an on-going debate for a number of months. Some analysts consider that Albania has been in a sort of permanent crisis over the whole transition period and perhaps with the effects of the global crisis there is only a further degree to the everlasting Albanian crisis. They point essentially to the fact that Albania has been over the past years a sales-oriented economy with little or no local production and with deep ratios of unemployment. Other analyses state that the crisis began in 2005 (that is after the former legislative elections), thus connecting the crisis with the economic policies and attitudes of the running government. Other analyses claim the economic progress of Albania over the past years and see little space for a real crisis in Albania. The political factors engage the debate in governance as well as in economic considerations. The government claims, for its credit, governance benefits and governance achievements and as a result a better economic stand for Albania. It is not inclined to see or to match any economic reality that is not compliant to what the government projects its governance should bring about. On the other side of the debate, the opposition parties that have always made criticism of the running governance, this time speak in terms of an “economic reality” that the government not only seems to ignore but also wants to deny.
Economic premises and political stands
With the effects of the global crisis being the object of media attention over the whole world, as well as with some of these effects now enacting growing difficulties to the Albanian economy, the discourse of the opposition parties has begun to employ the word “crisis” in intensive use. Sometimes the government is made rhetorically responsible for an upcoming crisis giving the opposition parties an argument over an electoral party that they will soon have to compete against in the legislative elections. But in the longer run, the discourse over the crisis seems to be impregnated with concern over the economical, social and political developments in Albania in the coming months. The major opposition parties might be in a position to think that they will take over the governance of the country. Economic experts and analysts as well as local business groups or economic actors have all contributed their concerns about a possible crisis in Albania over the past few months. They have asked the running government to come up with a financial and legislative packet against the crisis and seem to limit their discourse on the immediate facilitation of the business and economic climate, expecting an urgent and pre-electoral solution.
Since the debate over the economic situation, be it a crisis or not, is involved both in economic performance and in governance, the running government finds itself in an awkward position. With the elections of 28 June 2009 approaching, the government is trying to extend a positive view over its past and current performance to the electors and induce them to vote over whatever achievements the government thinks itself responsible for.
Economic crisis and economic behavior
The right-wing government has over the long debate on a possible crisis rectified its stand and finally accepted that some effects of the global crisis might be felt in Albania in the coming months. In exchanges with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in the press last Friday (Shqip), the Prime Minister has agreed that Albania may be touched by the global crisis and has asked for increased financial aid. But to the growing demands that the government come up with a financial and legislative packet against the crisis, the government had answered that Albania has already done a long time ago what other countries are doing against the crisis, that is tax reductions. No governmental initiative has yet come out concerning an anti-crisis “packet” or reflecting an economic downturn sensibility. The Minister of Finance, Ridvan Bode, declared that “Crisis is produced by panic” and asked the economic and political factors to refrain from fearing an economic collapse. While left-wing opposition declares that denying economic downturn is a risky and costly policy.
A crisis hides another – Competition
enforcement policies
When discussing the global crisis and its effects in Albania, no difference is made between the financial crisis that touched the banking sector at worldwide level and the purely economic crisis that is following everywhere in the world. While the financial crisis is being overcome and while it did not have the same exposition in Albania, the economic crisis is pendant to developed as well as developing economies. If panic is especially unwanted and is a producer of a crisis even in normal situations, an economic response to deteriorating situations in the economy makes sense and might be crucial in overcoming difficulties as well as maintaining or stimulating competition. Ilir Ciko, an economic analyst from the G99 party, sees the crisis inevitable. He points out that the majority of Albanian exports and imports are carried out with European Union countries, especially Italy and Greece, and that the EU is actually facing a recession. He stresses that other Balkan states that trade among them to extensive degrees are less exposed than Albania. The majority of the neighboring countries have adopted anti-crisis measures and their reactivity over a possibly coming crisis is expected not only to help overcome difficulties but also to enhance their existing competition in the regional as well as in the global market. “Albania is like a grass leaf in the world economy. When the storm comes the grass leaf might bend and not be touched, but if the storm lasts, the grass leaf will ply and break” – says Omer Stringa, Dean of the Economic Faculty of the University of Tirana. “Albania has seen many crises in the last two decades. In all the cases the reality has been accepted and measures have been taken” – says Ilir Ciko, stating that at a crossroads, Albania must take decisions. Over its last addresses, the Bank of Albania has pointed to risks for the durability of financial stability in 2009. While, the last previsions from the IMF, aired on the media this week, foresee an economic growth from 0 to 1 % for the current year. Few voices among the right-wing, if any audible, consider risks of an upcoming crisis and claim for anti-crisis measures. The major opposition parties’ programs have not yet been disclosed and it is untimely to guess if they have included urgency and short-term measures against a possible crisis in their electoral programs. Be there a crisis coming or not, there is a need in Albania for an update of economic policies and a need to make these policies preventive and competitive.
