Tirana, May 25 – The head of the SP Edi Rama and the head of SMI Ilir Meta, with the help of whom the Democratic Party was able to reach and keep a majority in the parliament so far, met for the first time since the parliamentary elections in 2009. In the last three years, animosity between them, like all animosities within the kind, has reached high levels. However, the break up between the SP and the SMI was not only a result of the fact that the former, once a fraction of the SP, after the elections of 2009 allied with the DP, a party on the right spectrum, to practically hand Prime Minister Berisha a second mandate. To Edi Rama and his party , Ilir Meta has been the symbol of corruption, and SMI has been a thief of public property and public goods” In this context, the attitude towards SMI has represented the foundation of the socialist opposition’s political cause:
” Replacing the corrupted Meta-Berisha regime, to clear the way for an Albanian renaissance.”
The two leaders from the left, met prior to the start of the procedures for the election of the new Head of State. Both Rama and Meta stated that the elections of the new President through a large consensus would facilitate Albania to get the status of EU candidate country.
This positioning of the SMI, makes the election of a leading figure of DP as the next chief of state very difficult, if not impossible. However, before the formal meeting in front of the cameras, the head of the SP and SMI, also met in private. Several clues seems to lead to a political reconciliation between the SP in opposition and SMI in power as a key partner of an already fragile and weak government coalition
If this rapprochement is not intended for the sole purpose of the electing a president, then what might it lead to? Could this be the beginning of a rapprochement of the Albanian left into an alliance in view of the upcoming general elections? What implications does the SP-SMI reconciliation have on each of these parties, and does it threaten the current majority in the parliament? The following analysis deals with the above mentioned issues.
No Ideology, No principles, No values: Power matters
Having political leaders who refuse to meet and communicate with each other, has been part of the political culture in Albania for the last 20 years. The eventual break up and animosity between the SP and SMI, especially in the last two years, are a result of the cause raised by the SP and other minor opposition parties as well. The Socialist Party has accused the government over several cases of corruption and in this context has accused the SMI for keeping a corrupted majority in power with its votes. The SP, and not only, has accused the leader of the SMI by considering him as the symbol of corruption in the country. The charges started right after a video was shown, where Meta, in the position of Foreign Minster tries to influence the Minister of Economy into handing out a license and several other favors. It led to the escalation of the political conflict, and as a result of the pressure, Meta had to resign.
To Edi Rama , Ilir Meta has been the symbol of corruption, and SMI has been a thief of public property and goods. In this context, the attitude towards SMI has represented the foundation of the socialist opposition’s political and moral cause, its principles of replacing the ideology of robbing Albania by means of power, with a transparent and democratic government, or as Edi Rama and other SP leaders like to note “” Replacing the corrupted Meta-Berisha regime, to clear the way for an Albanian renaissance”
With the Rama- Meta meeting, and with what appears to be an eventual reconciliation between the parties, is Edi Rama and the SP giving up on this cause? Will the SP continue to talk about an Albanian renaissance, and if yes, will this be a mutual endeavor with a party like SMI which from 2009 has kept a corrupted government alive according to the SP? Edi Rama justifies rapprochement with the SMI with the need of electing a consensual president, which would increase Albania’s chances of getting the candidate country status. So, in the short term Edi Rama is allying with Meta to condition the election of the President. On a middle term plan, use the alliance with the SMI to beat Berisha, either with a motion of confidence in the parliament, or with early elections which are not to be excluded. In political theory, this only means: Power matters, even against principles or values.
On a short term plan, the possibility that the rapprochement between SP and the SMI could lead to a motion of confidence for the Prime Minister before the election of the president, and that the majority could turn into a minority, should not be ruled out completely. This is a theoretical possibility although it is very unlikely to happen.
It seems even less likely that the SP- SMI rapprochement could elect the new president without the votes from the DP in the parliament.
To Rama, and even Meta, this pragmatic move seems to be more of a strategic investment for the upcoming elections in 2013, rather then simply conditioning the president election.
SP and SMI, and their leaders in particular, should be able to survive the next electoral battle in a year. Failure to bring the socialists in power for a second time in 2013, regardless of the reasons which would be put forward would mean the end of Rama’s political career. On the other hand, if Meta’s future as the SMI leader is not to be put into question, the future of SMI as a party is something that is anything but safe in the future. Meta’s political future, if there is ever going to be one, is directly related to the left, with the SP, and that small boat named SMI only serves the purpose of keeping it afloat.
As a result , it is highly likely that the rapprochement between SP and SMI, is aiming to build an alliance against the DP to bring down Berisha and the parliamentary majority, whenever it needs to, be it in the election of the President, with elections( early elections or in 2013) or even without them. Clearly, Rama is reconciling with Meta, to beat Berisha.
There is no doubt that the SP has decide to compete for the future with the past, and by relying on it.
If the “left” SP and SMI would have entered the 2009 elections in an alliance, Prime Minister Berisha and his party would currently be in opposition.
Also, if both parties had entered the 2011 local elections together, Edi Rama would still be the mayor of Tirana. We could apply the same logic to the upcoming general elections in 2013. Based on the 2005, and 2009 results, if the SP and SMI enter the 2013 elections together, they would be able to win more mandates then DP and its current smaller allies.
However, applying such logic is only tentative. This argument only takes into account the mathematical sum of the votes and does not consider the political behavior of voters in the first place.
Secondly, even though being pragmatic sometimes pays off, for an opposition party it is necessary to put up a credible cause in order to mobilize a critical mass against the government. Up until yesterday, Edi Rama’s cause was: An Albanian renaissance by removing the corrupted Berisha Meta regime. Now, Rama needs to work together with Meta in order to come up with a new cause against Berisha. We will have to hear what that is.
Meanwhile, we should not forget that in the next electoral battle of 2013, two new actors will come forth, the Red and Black Alliance, and the New Democratic Spirit Party, on which surveys are reinforcing a European trend: Shrinking of big political parties which have ruled the political sceneries for a long time.
A temporary re-factorization of Meta and LSI
The first certain political effect of the meeting or reconciliation between Rama and Meta is a re-factorization of the latter and the party he leads. Above all, this re-factorization of Meta and the SMI is related to the election of the new president, within the upcoming two months. The unification of the positions of the SMI and SP on the election of the President makes it very difficult, if not impossible for the DP to elect one of it members as the new president as Prime Minister Berisha pretends to do.
Under any circumstances, even without the consensus of the SP, if the candidate for the presidency would be part of the majority, he would still need the approval of the SMI.
In the election of a president, anything might happen, but in any occasion Meta and SMI would not lose anything. If the President were to be chosen by consensus from all three parties, DP, SP and SMI, the latter would be the one who would get all the credit, and justifiably so. If the president were to be chosen by the DP and SMI with 71 votes, it is understandable that the name of the candidate would have to be approved by the SMI. If not, it would mean that SMI would have the opportunity to choose the new head of state, or at least that SMI has exchanged their candidate in return for other favors in return. The third possibility, in which the DP is able to elect its own candidate without the help of SMI, assisted by SP deputies who would desert their ranks is less likely to happen. If such a possibility became a reality then the country would go to early parliamentary elections, and the legitimacy of the head of the state would be threatened.
But the re-factorization of Meta and the SMI goes beyond the context the President election. The upcoming 2013 general election will be decisive for the future of SMI and Ilir Meta. The creation of the SMI in 2004, was a result of the battle for power inside the SP. Consequently, the “strange”, SMI- DP alliance after the 2009 elections was a result of the political battle amongst the left leadership at the time. The Meta Rama rapprochement may eventually lead to a reconciliation of the two parties, thus creating a new opportunity for Ilir Meta in his quest for power within the left, while for instance waiting in line after Rama for the party leader position. On a more personal perspective as a result of the Meta-Rama dialogue, ” for national interests” as they like to define it, it is highly likely that Ilir Meta will experience a personal reaffirmation, after not such a bright period, spoiled with allegations and a tribunal process over corruption from which we all know that he came out innocent.
