The Albanian media gave quite a lot of space today to the new results of the opinion poll presented by Gazeta Express and TV 7, and conducted by the Albanian-Israeli company GeoCartography, which shows that the opposition will win around 71-74 seats in the next parliamentary election, securing the majority to lead the country. While in general the polls conducted in the Albanian media are seen with scepticism, in this case, the company got a lot of attention, especially because it has previously done polls in Kosovo, with excellent results.
According to the data, the Socialist Party will win 44.54% of the votes, which means that it will win around 65 to 67 seats in the next Parliament. The Democratic Party according to the poll will get 42.18% of the votes, or 61-63 seats. The third biggest party will continue to be the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI), with 9.31% of the votes, which will bring 10 to 11 seats. This means that even if the opposition will receive the lowest expected number of seats, 71, it will still have the minimum required number of seats in order to form the majority.
For the survey, 3778 people were interviewed, in nine different electoral zones. The poll gave interesting numbers from some of the biggest counties in Albania. In Tirana, according to the poll, the Socialist Party will win 17 seats, DP 16 seats, while LSI 3 seats, meaning that the opposition will triumph in the county that has the largest number of seats available in the parliament. In Fier, the SP will manage to have a clear win with 9 seats, compared to 7 seats that are projected overall for the opposition. In Durrës, which is considered a “battle ground”, the poll projects a win for the DP with 7 seats, followed by the SP with 6 seats; DP, SP and LSI will fight until the very end for the last seat available here.
In Elbasan, the company projects a tie for the moment between the SP and the opposition, with 7 seats each. In Vlora, the poll projects that the SP will win 7 seats, compared to 4 seats from the DP, and one seat from the LSI. In Korça, both the SP and the DP are projected to win 4 seats each, while the SMI 1 seat. Considering that there are 11 seats in the parliament for the county of Korça, even if the DP will manage to win one of the two remaining seats, the chances are bigger for the opposition to triumph overall in Korça. In Shkodër, DP is projected to win 5 seats, the SP 4 seats, LSI 1 seat, and a remaining seat will be fought between the other smaller parties. In Berat, the SP will win 4 seats, the DP 2 seats, and LSI 1 seat. In Lezha both the SP and the DP will win 3 seats, while LSI will win 1 seat, meaning that even here the opposition will lead. In Kukës, DP would win 2 seats and SP 1 seat.
